Core inflation fell to 0.5% in the last month of winter, from 0.7% in January and 0.8% in December 2022, while consumer prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 1.5%.
Average food prices in February 2023 increased by 31.5% compared to February last year, according to the website of the State Statistics Service (Gosstat). It turns out that for Ukrainians, whose income level is below average, the blow to the wallet turned out to be quite tangible.
In general, in February this year, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages in the consumer market grew by 1.5%. But in general, over the year, products have become more expensive by 31.5%.
What products have risen in price the most?
So, according to the department, among the products most of all rose in price:
eggs – by 80.3%; fruits – by 74.9%; fish and fish products – by 44.1%; vegetables – by 36.2%; sugar – by 32.5%; bread and bakery products – 26% pasta – by 25.8%; butter – by 24%; meat and meat products – by 23.2%; cheese and soft cheese – by 23%; milk – by 17.4%; sunflower oil – by 14.1 %.
Core inflation in the last month of winter fell to 0.5%
Photo: State Statistics Service
At the same time, core inflation in the last month of winter decreased to 0.5% – from 0.7% in January and 0.8% in December 2022.
What’s next for prices
Dmitry Churin, director of the analytical department at the investment company Eavex Capital, told Focus in early 2023 that macroeconomic indicators, including inflation, are unlikely to stabilize this year.
“For this year, military risks remain very high, which negatively affects economic activity in the country,” he said.
Accordingly, according to Dmitry Churin’s forecasts, a rather optimistic scenario assumes that inflation in Ukraine in 2023 will be about 20%. At the same time, he predicts that in 2023, prices for meat and fruits will grow at a higher rate compared to other groups of goods.
Meanwhile, the ICU investment group also believes that weak domestic demand, combined with a gradual resolution of logistical problems in 2023, will lead to an easing of inflationary pressures. In addition, the ICU’s forecast for a slowdown in inflation is supported by two new arguments:
it is likely that the NBU will not rush to depreciate the hryvnia as much as we previously expected, and by the end of 2023 the official dollar exchange rate will rise to about 40 UAH / USD (previously predicted 45 UAH / USD); due to the reduction in real household incomes, the government is likely , will not raise utility rates or will only agree to a symbolic increase next year (in 2024)
By the way, on March 10, 2023, the National Commission for State Regulation in the Spheres of Energy and Utilities (NEURC) announced that it would again consider the issue of raising tariffs for centralized water supply and centralized drainage. It is known that they plan to raise tariffs in two stages: first on April 1, and then on July 1.
Focus also wrote that the government in Ukraine has already developed ten options for changing electricity tariffs. But this issue has not yet been finally resolved, since the Cabinet understands that the rise in price will cause serious discontent among consumers.
