According to John Spencer, one should expect an increase in hostilities during the warming period. Thus, warm weather creates more favorable conditions for an offensive.
John Spencer, a retired US Army major and chairman of the Madison Policy Forum’s Urban Warfare Research Unit, said the war in Ukraine would move into a more active phase this summer. Newsweek writes about it.
According to the expert, Russian troops are now facing big problems due to mudslides. They do not have the ability to step on the ground, and therefore they have to move along asphalt roads. This makes them easy targets.
“I think as the mudslide becomes more pronounced, the routes that the Russians can take – both to move and to resupply – become more and more limited,” he said.
According to him, the severe cold, which Russian President Vladimir Putin so hoped for, is not as dangerous as mudslides. Therefore, one should expect an increase in hostilities during warming.
“Summer combat season. Everything is increasing,” he said.
Spencer noted that the warmer weather also improves aviation conditions as visibility improves.
Northwestern University political science professor William Reno also said that the most important factor in this war will be the will to win. In his opinion, the Russians do not have enough of it, because they do not know what they are fighting for.
“Ukrainians are fighting a bloody ground war against an enemy that has much more quantitative capabilities, but less motivation and more operational shortcomings,” he said.
Earlier, Zelensky explained to CNN the reasons for holding Bakhmut. According to the President, the road links with the city junctions of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk put these cities in line under the sight of the invaders, if Russia manages to take Bakhmut under control.
Poland has committed itself to repair equipment for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to the Minister of Defense of the country, Mariusz Blaszczak, Poland is already negotiating with the German government to agree on the supply of the necessary spare parts for the repair of tanks that will be used by the Ukrainian military.
