In war, the human will is of great importance, and the digital realm has proven to be a valuable new means of achieving and mobilizing this will.
The last year of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine has become a “lesson learned” for democracies around the world, trying to understand how not only strategies, but also technologies can develop in the future. Focus will tell you what military analysts expect when it comes to armed conflicts in the future.
Artificial intelligence and cyber attacks – a new military trend
The Armed Forces of Ukraine widely used new technologies, which, although they did not radically affect the course of hostilities, nevertheless became a reference point for tracking the trend in the technological development of the military-industrial complex, military analyst Peter Singer writes in his column.
The first thing worth talking about is the widespread use of artificial intelligence (AI), namely: facial recognition software to identify Russian soldiers, machine learning (ML) algorithms to improve the efficiency of military and volunteer logistics, intelligence, and information warfare.
“The use of neural networks of various functionalities will gain momentum, since AI is already of great importance for society today. No other area of technology today is funded as actively as AI and MOD. National governments and, as a result, their armed forces are interested in the development of neural networks , as well as big business,” the author claims.
The Ukrainian military will be presented with the coordination system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “Delta”
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Photo: dou.ua
The second important point is that cybersecurity has also become a new front in this war. At the beginning of the conflict, Russian hackers tried to attack various Ukrainian network systems, from power grids to space communications. But, like the Russian Armed Forces, they were not successful. And here the author sees two main reasons:
Putin had not prepared either the military or the hackers for the war he was planning. Ukraine’s cyber-defenders were able to handle most of the attacks.
The cyber battle also did not radically affect the course of the war, but let’s imagine what a group or military unit could do in the future that would be more organized, prepared, would have up-to-date intelligence and planning tools that could attack such a large target as the infrastructure of the entire countries.
“Cyber attacks are the future of warfare. We are becoming more and more dependent on the Internet, and the devices that now control operations in almost every area of critical infrastructure depend on it. Thus, there are also more targets for hacking. However, cybersecurity is too often “The Internet of Things, on which we increasingly rely, is becoming very vulnerable. And attackers will take advantage of this,” writes Singer.
Drones: new – well-forgotten old
UAVs were used during the Second World War, in conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, Pakistan and Libya. But some military experts thought drones weren’t that important in “conventional” warfare, meaning that drones are good in pinpoint conflicts with terrorists and insurgents.
“This academic and military dispute is over. Unmanned systems have proven to be incredibly important in the fighting in Ukraine, in various roles and even areas. They have played a decisive role in stopping columns of Russian tanks, in ensuring the high accuracy of Ukrainian artillery and missile strikes, at sea, sinking the Russian flagship Moskva, in delivering strikes on Russian naval bases in Crimea,” the expert emphasizes.
The story about the use of drones by the defenders of Ukraine
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Many different systems filled the battlefield: from large expensive military-grade UAVs to thousands of small commercial quadcopters. Both Ukrainian and Russian forces use drones not only for reconnaissance, but also for strikes and fire adjustments. Thanks to the integration of AI with drones, the Armed Forces are increasingly deploying autonomous systems, using drones and as loitering munitions, acting both singly and in swarms.
“Drone fights speak of what conflicts will be like in the future and how huge the role of unmanned aerial vehicles will be in them,” the expert sums up.
Open data intelligence and social media as a weapon
Another area where long-used technology is reaching new heights in 2022 is the use of social media as a weapon.
“Cyberwar means hacking networks, but deepfakes mean “hacking” people by spreading information through likes and reposts,” the column says. “In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the information war has reached a new level of strategic importance.”
One of the important aspects of the information war has become intelligence based on the analysis of open sources (OSINT). The Ukrainians have turned their cell phones and social media accounts into a new “espionage tool”, gathering bits of information and passing it on to the military and the media.
Instructions for using the service єVorog in the application “Дія”
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Thanks to OSINT, the world learned that Putin was lying when he said that Russia was “just reacting to an emergency” and not planning an invasion, which ultimately undermined his political strategy. In turn, the Armed Forces of Ukraine took OSINT data from literally thousands of local residents and unlucky Russian soldiers filming tik-toks and giving away their location in order to track the actions of the Russian military.
The dissemination of information about what is happening in Ukraine literally in real time has had a huge impact on foreign audiences. Sympathy for the Ukrainian people has changed the political context and priorities from the US to Japan to Australia. The controversy of recent months about Germany sending tanks to Ukraine (which eventually happened, again due to a change in attitude towards Ukrainians) shows that it took a year to “reshape” Germany’s foreign policy, which she followed for 75 years.
Economic war and the role of IT companies in it
The war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine also had a powerful economic effect. About 400 of the top 500 companies in the world left the Russian market (including a large number of IT corporations), and not because it was required by law or sanctions, but because doing business in Russia means having a bad reputation. This kind of new kind of “geopolitical cancellation” in the long term will affect not only the Russian economy, but also how other countries think about their economy during the war. And this may be one of the most significant consequences of the wars of the future, the author is sure.
The plot dedicated to the withdrawal of global companies from the Russian market
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According to the IMF, the first major conventional conflict of the 21st century in Europe occurred between the 9th and 56th largest economies in the world. The destruction was colossal, from energy markets to supply chains, not only for the combatants themselves, but for the entire world. Russia felt the effect on itself when it was forced to remove microchips from old refrigerators and washing machines, suspend the deployment of not only 5G but also 4G networks, slow down mobile traffic, and be left without updating various software, without high-quality gadgets and consumer electronics.
“Both in Washington and Beijing must now rethink the links between national and economic security and how they are affected by war,” Singer said.
The Ukrainian state and society did not collapse in the first days of fighting, as the Kremlin had hoped. According to opinion polls, 70% of Ukrainians believe that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will win the war, despite the smaller number of equipment and manpower compared to the RF Armed Forces.
“In war, human will matters, and the digital realm has proven to be a valuable new means of achieving and mobilizing that will,” the author concluded.
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