Major General of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Dmitry Marchenko warned about the likelihood of a new attack by Russian troops on the capital and called for preparations for defense. Interviewed Focus military analysts prove the unreality of the announced plans, and political scientists see implications for the need to strengthen mobilization.
The Russian army in 2024 may try to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea and launch an offensive against Kyiv. Ukraine needs to seriously prepare for defense, says Major General of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Dmitry Marchenko.
The military leadership of the Russian Federation did not abandon the south of Ukraine. Therefore, now it is necessary to build three lines of defense so that the advance of the Russian Armed Forces does not take place even by a few kilometers.
Marchenko also believes that the occupiers may attack Kyiv. For this, the Russian Federation has enough funds and the number of military personnel. Commanders in the Russian Federation are not concerned about the loss of 30–40 thousand people, so Russian propagandists often talk about the capture of the Ukrainian capital.
“We understand that this could be so-called informational stuffing; Rospropaganda usually works to its fullest. However, there is no smoke without fire, as they say,” the military man emphasized.
You can’t relax, because no one just leaves during a war. The Russians will reassess the military situation, draw conclusions, regroup their troops and go again, Marchenko is sure.
A breakthrough in the defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will cost thousands of dead
A large-scale offensive by the Russians in the areas indicated by Marchenko in the near future is not realistic for several reasons. The main point is to break through the Ukrainian defense, says Focus military expert Pavel Narozhny.
“Let’s take the southern sector. Rabotino has about 70 thousand of our soldiers. Yes, they are tired, they lack shells, but still they are a powerful force. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reserves in other directions, they can be transferred. The front is saturated with FPV drones, “They are used in attack and reconnaissance. Enemy armored vehicles will be an easy target for them. You can break through the defenses with a large number of infantry, but you will have to go through minefields,” explains the specialist.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces also carry out strikes in Crimea, which complicates supply and logistics processes. If we take Avdeevka as an example, it is much more convenient for the Russian Armed Forces in terms of offensive action. The border with Russia is close and you can easily transfer ammunition and equipment. For several months now they have been fighting against the city and losing columns of armored vehicles and personnel, Narozhny continues.
“The enemy also has a shortage of human resources. Yes, there are more of them, but to break through the defense you need to gather 5-6 times more people and all of them must be ready to die in minefields,” the analyst notes.
Does Marchenko stimulate the mobilization process?
General Marchenko’s military assessments may be associated with support for the authorities’ plan to strengthen mobilization, he believes political scientist Vladimir Fesenko.
“I cannot assess the motives of General Marchenko and why he says that there is a danger of a second offensive. Maybe this is his analysis, fantasy, or there is an implication related to the need to strengthen mobilization. But even if there is a direct threat to Kyiv, for many it is will not become an incentive for mobilization, rather, on the contrary, an incentive to escape,” he explains Focus.
As a rule, people react differently to danger: some take up arms, while others run. The effect of such statements by the military may be exactly the opposite of expectations.
“Everyone must realize the global danger for our country. And everyone needs to talk about this – from (Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery) Zaluzhny to (Ukrainian President Vladimir) Zelensky. If we do not stop the enemy, the war may drag on, we may lose the whole country. But how an incentive for mobilization, this particular approach will not work,” the political scientist added.
Fesenko draws attention to statements by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine that there is no danger of a Russian attack on Kyiv in the near future.
“A sign of danger for Kyiv will be the obvious concentration of troops in Belarus or the Bryansk region. Now there are no such direct threats,” he concluded.
Let us recall that on January 27, the head of the Kharkov regional military administration Oleg Sinegubov said that the RF Armed Forces resumed an intensive offensive in the direction of Sinkovka and Tabaevka. Military and local authorities must be prepared for any developments, he warned.
DeepState analysts previously summed up the results of the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the invaders. The Russian Federation captured the largest amount of territory during the Battle of Bakhmut.