According to former Russian diplomat Boris Bonderev, the head of the Kremlin is an ordinary dictator who does not have any superpowers. The situation in the Russian Federation will change when the Russians say goodbye to illusions and find themselves in a new reality, where there is only fear and repression.
Russian President Vladimir Putin could be removed from power if the Russian Federation fails to win the war in Ukraine on acceptable terms. This was stated by the former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, who resigned after a large-scale invasion of Russian troops in Ukraine, reports Newsweek.
“Putin can be replaced. He’s not a superhero. He doesn’t have any superpowers whatsoever. Just an ordinary dictator,” said Bondarev, 42, who left his position as an arms control expert at the Russian diplomatic mission in Geneva in May 2022.
Bondarev is the only Russian diplomat to publicly step down from his post because of the war in Ukraine.
According to him, world history shows that such dictators have been removed from time to time.
“As a rule, if they could not win the war and meet the needs of their supporters, they left,” the ex-diplomat explained.
He believes that if the Russians realize that the war is lost and that Putin has nothing to offer in return, there will be “disappointment and disagreement.”
“They may decide that they don’t need Putin anymore. I think when they say goodbye to illusions and find themselves in a new reality where Putin has nothing to offer them – except for fear and repression against their own people – this will change the situation,” Bondarev said.
Three scenarios of Russian defeat
Vlad Mikhnenko, an expert on post-communist transformations in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union at Oxford University, described three potential scenarios for a Russian defeat in Ukraine.
“Many, if not all, depends on the nature of the defeat,” he said.
Panic among 600,000 Russians in Crimea
The first scenario is a chaotic retreat of the Russian Armed Forces in the face of a rapid offensive by Ukrainian forces on one or more fronts.
This will lead to panic among the 600,000 Russians who settled in Crimea after the annexation of the peninsula in 2014 and Russian collaborators in the Donbass. They will try to escape and this will lead to a “rapid collapse of the front”.
At the same time, in Moscow, the security forces will quickly remove Putin from power.
“He will not have the ability to deploy nuclear weapons, which many fear, such an order will be sabotaged at many levels,” Mikhnenko explained.
Like in World War I
The second scenario is a retreat in the style of the First World War.
The current situation on the front line in Ukraine is reminiscent of the events of 1916-1917.
“A protracted war of attrition, mobilized Russians, poor equipment and supplies, months in dirty cold trenches under increasing attacks of Ukrainian artillery, mass desertion, which leads to the collapse of the front,” Mikhnenko explained.
In this case, unlike the first scenario, events will develop more slowly and not so dramatically. Putin will have plenty of time to ask for a ceasefire on almost any terms.
“Again, no nuclear weapons will be used, because if Russian soldiers desert, there will be no one to take advantage of a nuclear strike,” he said.
The war will last two more years
The third scenario is that the war will last another two years. Discontent in the Russian Federation will grow and be accompanied by slow retreats from several combat areas.
In this case, the Russian elite will try to negotiate with Putin and declare “victory” in the “confrontation with the West,” perhaps they will say that they “did not lose,” “defended their homeland,” and so on. At the same time, the reins of government will be handed over to Putin’s successor.
Recall that the editor-in-chief of RT Margarita Simonyan said that Russian troops disarmed Ukraine in 2-3 days, now they are at war with NATO and will continue to “defeat the entire Western world.”
Focus previously reported that, in a UK security report released on March 13, it is reported that the consequences of the war in Taiwan will be greater than in Ukraine.
