The other day, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhny met with the generals of NATO countries. He called this communication very important for Ukraine. We talked about the training of the Ukrainian military, the situation in Bakhmut, the counteroffensive and the supply of weapons. Focus figured out what else the commander-in-chief could talk about and how it would affect the situation at the front.
Among the colleagues at the meeting were: Supreme Commander of the Allied Armed Forces of NATO in Europe – Commander of the US Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli, Chief of Defense Staff of Great Britain Admiral Tony Radakin, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland, General Raimund Andrzejczak and Commander of the Security Assistance Group of Ukraine, General Lieutenant Antonio Aguto.
“Any meetings of this level take place because it is necessary to discuss further actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the combat zone, adjust plans, get the support of international partners,” Alexander Kovalenko, coordinator of the Information Resistance group, tells Focus. “They help determine what we need, in order to increase efficiency – what kind of weapons, when can we get them. In addition, there are other components, such as intelligence and intelligence information, which are also discussed. There are many positions that need to be talked about, and talked about often.”
Hold Bahmut
During a recent meeting with reporters, the head of the Office of the President, Andriy Yermak, recalled his meeting between General Zaluzhny and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley. Yermak claims that during the telephone conversation, the decision to keep Bakhmut was once again agreed upon.
“Do not retreat and strengthen” – this is exactly the decision that was made the day before at a meeting of the Headquarters of the Supreme Commander.
If you look at the maps of the DeepState project, then the situation in the Bakhmut area raises more and more questions. Russian troops occupied sections of the eastern part of the city along the right bank of the Bakhmutka River, and the distance between the northern and southern edges, where Ukrainian troops are stationed, is no more than four kilometers. It is this “neck” – the supply route, which the Ukrainian army does not allow to narrow, and the enemy is constantly shelling.
Experts call the defense of Bakhmut tactical – to contain the previously announced offensive of the Russians
Photo: Getty Images
Experts call the defense of Bakhmut tactical – to contain the previously announced offensive of the Russians, which they launched back in January. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu spoke about him earlier, and the curator of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, assured that, if successful, an operational space would open. For the Russians, the Bakhmut district has been a priority for several months now, but they cannot break through the Ukrainian defenses there. And it is unlikely that from an operational or tactical point of view, Bakhmut is important for the Russians, they say at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) – his capture will not contribute to the further advancement of the invaders in the Donetsk region due to significant losses of Russian troops.
According to CNN sources in NATO intelligence: when Ukraine loses one fighter in Bakhmut, Russia loses five. Thus, today Bakhmut performs the main purpose – to take power from the Russians. There, the invaders are losing thousands of soldiers and hundreds of pieces of equipment.
“I think the situation in Bakhmut will not change in the near future. It will be mainly defense by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There is no talk of a counteroffensive in Bakhmut, as long as only counterattacks are possible there,” continues Kovalenko.
With thoughts of counteroffensive
But still, the main topic of Zaluzhny’s negotiations with NATO partners is the future spring counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army.
Both in Ukraine and in the West they have been talking about him for several months. In this sense, Bakhmut is important not only as a deterrent: favorable conditions are created in this area for a retaliatory strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. While fighting is going on in Bakhmut, Ukraine is forming reserves and receiving Western equipment.
Experts note that over the past three months, Ukraine has received and will receive more equipment than could be imagined since the beginning of the invasion. For example, The Economist writes that of all the military aid promised by the Pentagon since the start of the war, 40% – worth more than $8 million – arrived within three months of December 9th. That is, after the moment when the United States and NATO partners decided that a protracted war in Ukraine is unprofitable for the world and there is an opportunity to end everything faster. As a result, almost a third of the Ukrainian army will soon have NATO-standard equipment. In addition, instead of reinforcing Bakhmut, Zaluzhny sent the Ukrainian military to study abroad. So, since January, the training command of the 7th US Army has been conducting five-week courses for Ukrainian units at the Grafenwehr training ground in Germany.
“I think that the Ukrainian side is clearly discussing the upcoming counteroffensive with US representatives. This means that they coordinate not only assistance and weapons, but also decisions about the exercises that the Ukrainian military is undergoing,” an Americanist political scientist, an analyst at Internews-Ukraine, tells Focus Vladislav Faraponov: This is not only about training, but also about obtaining tactical skills that will be used in the counteroffensive, and he is expected both in Ukraine and in the United States. successful counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region and Kherson region. For them, the very fact of several successful operations is very important. This experience suggests that, despite the complexity and long time that these regions were occupied, Ukraine was able to break through, which means that it is necessary to continue supporting Ukraine “.
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Meanwhile, in a commentary to The Economist, Valery Zaluzhny announced the creation of three army corps, each of which will have six brigades – a total of 60,000 offensive fighters.
“In order to liberate all the occupied territories, such a resource is not enough,” the military expert replies. “But it is enough for a separate counteroffensive in one of the directions.”
Kovalenko suggests that Zaluzhny’s public statements about the creation of new corps can be regarded both as an informational special operation and as an element of dialogue with international partners. And also as a way to put pressure on the Russian command.
Where a new Ukrainian counter-offensive might start is an open question. Some Western analysts predict that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will go south – towards Melitopol, Zaporozhye region.
“Now there are several bridgeheads where we can carry out counter-offensive operations. These are the left-bank Kherson region, the Zaporozhye region, the Lugansk region,” says the coordinator of the Information Resistance group. “Each of them has its advantages and disadvantages. General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.We must understand that an analytical review of the situation is being carried out for each of the bridgeheads.The counteroffensive will take place where we will be most effective in the counteroffensive.This scenario will differ from those used in the northern bridgehead, in the Kharkiv region and in the right-bank Kherson region in 2022 “Only the occupiers carry out offensive operations according to the same manual. Counter-offensives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not follow the same scenarios. I expect something completely unexpected.”
From rockets to planes
For a counteroffensive, Ukraine needs not only new forces and equipment, but also additional weapons.
Ukraine has already received one of two Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems promised by Germany and the United States. This is reported by the British newspaper Financial Times.
“The issue of ATACAMs missiles may have been raised at a meeting with NATO representatives, but we must understand that Western partners are not ready to provide us with these missiles,” Alexander Kovalenko continues. “One of the reasons why they are unlikely to be given to us is that the United States itself has such there are not many missiles.The process of their production is not now commercialized.The transfer of HIMARS and GLSDB rockets is possible, but with ATACAMs everything is much more complicated.If we get any long-range weapons, then this, first of all, I’m sure , will there be a GLSDB or an air-launched missile Storm Shadow. Although this is a completely different question – we will talk about exactly how this weapon will be used. Since the air-launched missile, it will either need to be integrated into the MiG-29, Su-27. Or already use when we get western-style aircraft.”
Zaluzhny also talks about aircraft with his NATO colleagues. Not so long ago, in a telephone conversation with the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States of America, Mark Milley, the commander-in-chief recalled the need to strengthen Ukrainian air defense, including F-16 aircraft. After that, the speaker of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Yuriy Ignat, said that the process had begun: Poland and Slovakia made statements about their readiness to transfer to Ukraine, although not American aircraft, but Soviet ones – the MiG-29 as part of an international coalition to provide aircraft.
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