The potential for a direct military clash between the Russian Federation and the West exists. Moscow will pose a formidable challenge to Washington in key areas over the next 10 years, intelligence officials say.
Russia does not want a direct military conflict with US and NATO forces, but the potential for this exists. This is stated in the report of the US intelligence agencies with a threat assessment, which is published on the US National Intelligence website.
The Russian authorities, according to intelligence, have so far avoided taking a big war outside of Ukraine. Escalation risks in the US are assessed as significant.
“The aggressive war between Russia and Ukraine is a significant event that is changing Russia’s relations with the West and China. The paths for the development of the conflict are extremely uncertain, the escalation to a military confrontation between Moscow and the West carries a great risk that the world has not faced for decades,” they noted. specialists.
US intelligence agencies have come to the conclusion that in the next 10 years Moscow will pose an impressive challenge to Washington in key areas, but still face a number of restrictions.
“Russia will continue to defend its interests to dominate other countries in the post-Soviet space, including by using military force, as in Ukraine,” the report says.
Russia’s military setbacks in a full-scale war with Ukraine could damage the domestic reputation of its president, Vladimir Putin. An additional escalation of hostilities is possible in an attempt to win, the special services indicated.
Moscow will continue to use many tools to advance its interests and undermine the influence of the United States and its allies. These can be military means, malicious influence, cybernetics and intelligence means. The economic and energy levers of Russia’s influence will decrease over time, according to the US National Intelligence.
Russian forces continue to concentrate their efforts on the capture of Donbass, but success should not be expected in 2023, the intelligence added.
“Moscow will become more dependent on nuclear, cyber and space capabilities due to the large-scale defeat of the ground forces. Heavy losses in ammunition spending during the conflict have weakened Moscow’s ground and air-based capabilities,” the officials concluded.
Recall that Roman Kostenko, Secretary of the Parliamentary Committee for National Security, Defense and Intelligence, said on February 28 that Russia was preparing to launch an offensive in the spring. Approximate date – end of March-beginning of April.
The Kremlin previously said that US President Joe Biden had the opportunity to end a full-scale war in Ukraine in a day.
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