Russian troops, analysts say, have neither the manpower nor the equipment to carry out further offensives, whether they capture Bakhmut or not.
Ukrainian forces can make a limited retreat in the eastern part of Bakhmut and at the same time continue to inflict casualties on the advancing Russian forces. At the same time, it seems inevitable that in the future the RF Armed Forces will be forced to stop, and this will create favorable conditions for the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. This was reported by the “Institute for the Study of War” in its report for March 5.
Military researchers refer to Russian military correspondents who expect little from the subsequent offensive efforts of the Russians, if they still manage to capture Bakhmut. After that, they can try to resume their advance towards Konstantinovka or Slavyansk. But it will be difficult to make up for the loss of personnel and equipment.
It is likely that the Russian offensive will reach its peak in the Bakhmut area before or after its possible capture, this circumstance, coupled with the already bogged down offensive in the Vuhledar area and in the Luhansk region, will likely create good conditions for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Right now, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are most likely conducting a limited tactical retreat from Bakhmut, although it is still too early to talk about the intentions of the Ukrainian command. The retreat from the eastern bank of the Bakhmutka River is indicated by the destruction of the railway station on March 3, which was confirmed by geolocated footage.
On March 5, Russian media reported the capture of the eastern, northern and southern parts of Bakhmut, but there is no independent confirmation of this. Geolocated footage indicates that Wagner PMC forces continue their offensive in the northwestern part of Bakhmut, as well as in the area of the Stupki railway station.
It is still difficult to say whether the Armed Forces of Ukraine are planning to hold positions from the western bank of Bakhmutka.
The defense of Bakhmut for the Armed Forces of Ukraine seems to be strategically justified, since it causes damage to manpower and equipment of the RF Armed Forces, but until the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine turn out to be excessive.
Ukrainian military
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Photo: General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
It is unlikely that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will leave Bakhmut in full force, a gradual retreat will allow inflicting damage on the RF Armed Forces in street battles, even with an active retreat. In turn, the Russians will not be able to quickly capture new areas.
The city center is located on the western bank of the Bakhmutka River, and the Russian Armed Forces will have to fight in this area if they cannot advance in the northern or southern parts.
The conditions of the urban landscape will play into the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine if it is not possible to keep Khromovo (the northwestern outskirts of Bakhmut). Russian military correspondents note that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to defend Khromovo and repel Russian attacks on Ivanovskoye, which may force the RF Armed Forces to go through the center of Bakhmut. This is associated with the risk of significant losses and stopping the advance of the occupying forces.
Street fighting in Bakhmut could wear down Russian forces, as it did in Severodonetsk/Lysichansk, where the Russians’ summer offensive in Luhansk and Donetsk regions essentially ended.
Earlier, Focus reported that, according to the NYT, the Russian ship “Sparta IV” with military equipment on board passed the Bosphorus. The draft of the ship testified to a large load.
Recall that the Wagner cemetery in the Krasnodar Territory is growing: 30 new graves appeared within a week.
