Uncertainty in the market is decreasing, and prices are stabilizing at the same time.
The main factor in the increase in prices for cars in 2022 was the state of uncertainty in supplies, difficulties with logistics and imports of both the cars themselves and their components, as well as the volatility of the foreign exchange market – exchange rates were constantly changing, and it was difficult to predict them.
Now the market is gradually leveling off, which promises more order, thanks to which sellers will be able to make quite transparent forecasts that will come true.
What was happening in the car market in 2022 is very well shown by the price charts of popular models. It is noteworthy that the most unmanageable prices were the prices for budget cars of popular brands. This can be seen from the Kia Rio price growth chart:
The price change schedule for the Volkswagen Tiguan turned out to be more broken, but by the end of 2022, the cost reached a plateau:
Prices for cars in the premium segment turned out to be more stable, and after the March “panic” they went down and depended on the exchange rate (for example, the Mercedes-Benz E-class):
Expert opinionDenis Kokoryshkin, expert on passenger cars at Alfa-Leasing Group:
– Basically, cars of those brands that have lost supplies or production opportunities have risen in price. Chinese manufacturers have also leveled their pricing in the market after Korean and Japanese brands, but not as much in percentage terms. By the end of 2022, domestic cars have risen in price the least, with the exception of Lada Largus, which experienced a production deficit.
The trend is changing: the market has learned to adapt quickly, and if in 2023 we see an increase in the production and supply of cars, it is likely that this may contribute to a decrease in the weighted average prices in the market.
The emergence of a large number of new brands and models on the market, especially in the price range of 1,300,000 – 1,800,000, may also affect the price reduction in 2023.
With this in the context of the year, I think we will still see an increase in prices of about 10-15% depending on the segment, but like last year, this forecast can be influenced by a huge number of factors.
In parallel imports, suppliers of premium cars have a fairly large stock for “bargaining”, which, with an increase in the volume of deliveries, will allow buyers to receive more interesting offers. But in the segment with a price range of up to 2 million rubles, such a reserve is less, and the costs are usually the same.
I think that as the market fills with Chinese-made cars, we will see a decrease in prices for Korean and Japanese cars. In this case, there is warranty support, a wide range of options, interesting design solutions, a wide range of models. And we, in turn, are seeing an increase in the share of Chinese automakers in the passenger car segment virtually every month.
Photo: Sergey Bobylev / TASS
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