The suspension of Russia’s participation in the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty destroyed the last nuclear weapons treaty with the United States. For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the two states with the largest nuclear arsenals will have no safeguards against their accumulation and development. Will this mean the beginning of a new arms race and will Russia survive it, Focus figured out.
Putin intimidates, States respond
On the last day of February 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law suspending the operation of the agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States on measures to further reduce and limit strategic offensive weapons. Thus, exactly one week passed from the declaration of intent to its implementation.
During these seven days, the United States managed to transfer to Europe four B-52 Stratofortress strategic bombers capable of carrying missiles with nuclear warheads. After participating in the parade on the occasion of the independence of Estonia, the planes were put on combat duty at the Moron airbase in Spain. And the so-called “doomsday aircraft” E-6B Mercury of the US Navy from the first air wing of the Strategic Command was redeployed to Iceland. The main purpose of the aircraft is communication and control of strategic nuclear submarines of the Ohio class – carriers of intercontinental ballistic missiles. Each such submarine can carry up to 24 Trident II D5 missiles carrying a nuclear charge. The United States has 14 such submarines, and the UK has four more similar Vanguards. Note that none of these measures are subject to START-3.
Vladimir Putin signed a law on the suspension of the agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States on measures to further reduce and limit strategic offensive weapons
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In turn, Russia transferred several Yars missile systems from a permanent deployment point in the Ivanovo region to the Moscow region. Officially – to prepare for a military parade on Red Square. The RS-24 Yars is a modernization of the Topol-M missile, the first and so far the only ICBM developed in the Russian Federation after the collapse of the USSR.
Experts interviewed by Focus note that the United States decided to show Putin that “two people can play this game.” Against the backdrop of diplomatic statements about the need to return to the implementation of START-3, which is a guarantee of world security in the field of nuclear weapons, Washington began to demonstrate its military capabilities.
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“I would say that this is not yet a demonstration of capabilities, but only a warm-up. What Putin did is a classic manner of Soviet nuclear blackmail, that is: I made a decision, and now you have to persuade me. Now the Russian Federation ceases to be a dangerous player in the world level. The United States has complete information about the nuclear triad of the Russian Federation and its real state,” military-political observer Alexander Kovalenko tells Focus.
“Putin is trying to scare the Americans. Look, Blinken immediately met with Lavrov to urge Russia to reverse its decision to suspend participation in the main nuclear treaty on strategic offensive arms. This is the first time since the start of a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Moreover, it is noted that the meeting was held precisely on the initiative USA. I note that for the United States, the controllability of world nuclear security is a national interest, “explains Focus, professor at the Institute of International Relations of the KNU. Shevchenko Sergey Galaka.
Anthony Blinken met with Sergey Lavrov to urge Russia to reverse the decision to suspend participation in the main nuclear treaty
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Photo: Sky News
He recalls that the previous President of the United States, Donald Trump, dragged out the signing of the START-3 extension to the last, and Joe Biden signed it almost immediately after the inauguration.
“In the United States’ assessment, the Russian Federation has met its obligations under New Start (START-3) every year since the agreement entered into force in 2011. Especially in times of tension, having verifiable limits on Russian intercontinental nuclear weapons becomes critical. Extending the agreement New Start makes the United States, its allies and partners, and the entire world safer. Rampant nuclear competition would put us all at risk,” the US State Department said in a February 2021 statement.
“Sarmat” – a missile that does not exist
Sergei Galaka explains that the START Treaty is actually more beneficial for Russia than for the US. The treaty limits each side to no more than 1,550 ready-to-use nuclear warheads and no more than 700 means of delivering them—deployed silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and strategic missile-carrying bombers.
“It is with the carriers of nuclear warheads that the Russian Federation is currently experiencing difficulties. The legacy inherited from the USSR is expiring, it is no more than 40 years. By and large, today most of the Russian arsenal is missiles that they received from Ukraine and Kazakhstan after their renunciation of nuclear weapons. The newest missile “Sarmat”, which the Kremlin leadership constantly mentions, is not ready – out of three launches it did not fly away twice. Russia already now cannot count on the number of nuclear charge carriers, which is prescribed in START-3 ” , the expert notes.
The Sarmat missile is still not ready, out of three launches only one was successful
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Stopping the START-3 Treaty removes restrictions from the Kremlin on the deployment of intercontinental-range nuclear weapons capable of reaching the United States in about 30 minutes. We are talking about promising missiles of the Sarmat and Avangard complexes and serial production of the Kinzhal and Zircon hypersonic systems. It is with this that the Russian Federation is experiencing the greatest difficulties today. The Sarmat missile is still not ready, out of three launches only one was successful, there is little information about Avangard in the public domain, and Zircon and Dagger are in small quantities. The sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation do not allow mass production.
For example, in 2022, the Russian Federation twice conducted strategic missile troops exercises. The first time was on February 19, five days before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the second time in October. Launches of the Yars intercontinental ballistic missile from the Plesetsk state test cosmodrome and the Sinevaya ballistic missile from the Barents Sea were practiced. At the same time, NATO’s Steadfast Noon nuclear deterrent exercise ended in Europe. The exercise was attended by 60 aircraft from 14 member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance.
It should be noted that any exercises are held without the use of nuclear warheads. Since 1963, nuclear weapons testing has been banned on the ground, in the atmosphere, in space, or underwater.
“Putin constantly praises his Sarmat ICBM, a missile that does not exist in nature. They still have not passed the entire test cycle, one successful launch means nothing, there should be dozens of them. In fact, this is a missile model, not a ready-made carrier Today Russia is not able to restore the production lines of ICBMs, the country lacks scientific potential and there are no opportunities to produce modern microcircuits, they are smuggled out, “Kovalenko notes.
Nuclear weapon. Races without participants
The lack of safeguards in the accumulation of nuclear weapons and their means of delivery led to the so-called arms race between the US and the USSR. In fact, it became one of the reasons for the decline of the Soviet economy and its further collapse. The suspension of START-3 by Putin formally kicks off a new race; legally, it could start as early as 2026.
“The START treaty is complex, it is not just one year of work. Therefore, if by the end of the year we do not see activity at least at the level of working groups, it can be argued that there is a risk that the new treaty will not be signed. This will mean the start of a new arms race,” Galaka explains.
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According to him, under no circumstances will Russia survive this race – either economically or technologically. The USSR barely pulled it, despite the fact that the country had 18-20% of world GDP. Today, the Russian Federation can count on 1.2-1.5% of GDP, which is rapidly declining against the backdrop of falling oil prices. In addition, the Kremlin has launched a full-scale war in Ukraine, which brings enormous costs to its budget, which are intensified due to economic sanctions imposed on the main budget-forming areas.
“Russia will not be able to increase the production of nuclear charge carriers, since today there is no longer the necessary technical and technological base. Production lines have been lost and plundered, the only thing they are capable of today is to serve what they have. And these are still Soviet-made missiles , which have an expiring expiration date,” Kovalenko believes.
On February 10, the US Air Force Global Strikes Command conducted its annual launch of the LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBM. This is the only American silo-based missile that has been in service since the 70s of the last century. The launch took place as part of the so-called Glory Trip, an annual firing that assesses the reliability of the rocket. The LGM-30G Minuteman III will be tested annually until 2029, when it will be replaced by the LG-35A Sentinel missile. It is currently in the early stages of development. The execution contract was awarded to Northrop Grumman in the amount of $13.3 billion.
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