The Kremlin launched the information operation with two main narratives: fueling support for the war in Russia and fueling fears in the West about the instability that would come after the possible collapse of the Russian Federation, in order to persuade Ukraine to negotiate.
Russian officials are promoting an information operation that misrepresents Russia’s war in Ukraine as critical to the continued existence of the Russian Federation for both Russians and the West, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported Feb. 27.
Experts suggest that Putin hopes to create informational conditions for accusing Ukraine and the West of threatening the existence of the Russian Federation in response to Russian military failures and unprecedented support for Ukrainians.
Experts drew such conclusions from the fact that in an interview with the Rossiya-1 TV channel, Putin said that he did not know whether “such an ethnic group as the Russian people could survive in the form in which it exists today” if the West managed to “destroy Russian Federation and establish control over its fragments.”
Around the same time, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev accused the West of fueling the current situation in Ukraine since the collapse of the Soviet Union and concluded that “the calm power of a great country and the authority of its partners are the key to preserving the future of our entire world.”
“This suggests that the Russian authorities are trying to frame the war as existentially important for the continued survival of the post-Soviet Russian Federation, which is likely an attempt to present the war as having higher stakes for Russia and the West than it really is,” the statement reads. report.
The report also states that Russian forces are adopting new assault tactics to compensate for the current limitations in combat power in response to persistent failures in offensive operations.
“Assault troops may be able to achieve tactical advantages due to their simplicity, but will probably quickly lose ground due to their small size and attrition tactics. Russian troops are unlikely to be able to quickly make operationally significant breakthroughs with this formation,” they conclude analytics.
By the way, according to ISW, Putin may soon face a shortage of recruits. An increase in the mobilization reserve will lead to the fact that physically unfit Russians will be sent to the war in Ukraine, which will also affect the economy.
Earlier, Focus reported that Putin is transferring control of the Russian army in Ukraine to Shoigu. The army corps of the so-called “DPR” and “LPR” are actively integrating into the Russian army.
Recall that Forbes magazine recently calculated Russia’s total spending on a full-scale war in Ukraine. According to the publication, it took almost $115 billion, or 30% of the entire Russian budget for 2021.
According to British intelligence data for February 12, Russian troops suffered the largest losses in Ukraine since the beginning of a full-scale war in 2 weeks – more than 800 people in 1 day.
On February 26, Deputy Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Vadym Skibitsky spoke about the readiness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to launch a counteroffensive in the spring. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will seek to divide the occupiers between Crimea and the mainland of the Russian Federation.
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