The notion that trade and interdependence were the best guarantees against war was deeply rooted in the European psyche after World War II, even in dealing with a hostile Moscow, but Europe had to wake up and readjust.
The European Union of 27 countries was created with the fundamental idea of expanding peace throughout the continent. That Putin’s Russia has become aggressive, imperialistic, revanchist and violent, and impervious to European peace politics, was almost impossible to grasp in Paris or Berlin, even after the annexation of Crimea in 2014, writes The New York Times on February 26.
The war in Ukraine has changed Europe more profoundly than any event since the end of the Cold War in 1989
The mentality of peace, sharpest in Germany, has given way to the realization that military force is needed to ensure security and achieve strategic goals. “Europe lulled by amnesia”, moving on autopilot, stepped up to a huge effort to preserve freedom in Ukraine, which many on the continent perceive as synonymous with their own.
“European politicians were not familiar with the idea of hard power as a tool in foreign policy or geopolitical affairs, BUT they got a crash course,” said Rem Korteweg, a Dutch defense expert.
Gone are the discussions about the size of tomatoes or the shape of bananas that are acceptable in Europe; Debate continues as to which tanks and possibly F-16s to provide to Kyiv.
Zeitenwende, or epochal turning point
This is the term that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz used almost a year ago in his speech announcing a $112 billion investment in the German military. Indeed, a historic step for Germany, a country traumatized by its Nazi past and infused with domestic anti-war sentiment, but the word also applies to a continent where the possibility of nuclear war, however remote, is no longer the realm of science fiction.
The post-Cold War era has given way to a period in which great power rivalry is on the rise
“Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia,” President Biden said last week in Warsaw. He spoke during talks between China and Russia about his “borderless” partnership, and Putin suspended Russia’s participation in the last surviving arms control treaty between the two largest nuclear states.
“The war brought Europeans back to basics, to questions of war and peace and our values. It asks us: who are we as Europeans,” said François Delattre, the French ambassador to Germany.
The collapse of the theory of the “West without a backbone”?
In Russia’s ideology, Europeans were part of a decadent West devoid of any backbone. It was one of several mistakes that thwarted a Russian invasion that some speculated would paralyze Ukraine in a matter of days.
Europe’s dependence on the United States – almost 78 years after the end of World War II – reappeared
Since the beginning of the war, America has armed Ukraine for about $30 billion, much more than the European contribution. Without the States, Ukraine might not have had the military means to counter a Russian invasion. This “sobered up” the Europeans. Now the EU will deal with the strengthening of its troops; the question will be how to resolve tensions between the front-line states, which intend to completely defeat the Kremlin, and others, such as France and Germany, who are inclined to compromise; and how to organize next year’s US elections, fueling worries about whether Washington will stay the course.
Recall that on February 16, the European Parliament by a majority vote adopted a resolution on the anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and called on EU member states to supply Western fighter jets to Kyiv.
Meanwhile, on February 26, it became known that the United States, Germany and Poland were going to conduct joint exercises near Ukraine. Military maneuvers in Poland, a country that borders Ukraine, would send a “very clear” signal to NATO allies as well as Russian President Vladimir Putin, the German defense minister said.
By the way, Europe did without Russian gas and saved $15 billion. By the end of 2023, fossil fuel prices will drop sharply and Russia will have a hard time, analysts say.
