Analysts are convinced that if the Kremlin increases the mobilization reserve, Russians physically unfit for war will be sent to the front, which could hit the economy hard.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will face the conscription dilemma this year: he will need to recruit more people, but the Russian Federation simply does not have such a resource. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) came to this conclusion in their report, published on February 26.
Thus, the ISW is convinced that the Russian conscription system generates approximately 260,000 new soldiers annually, who are called up in two waves. The combination of pre-war recruitment, partly reservist-based conscription, and autumnal partial mobilization likely greatly reduced the available reserve contingent in age groups and with experience suitable to replace losses in combat units on the front lines.
“Putin will have to consider expanding the conscription service to enlist a larger proportion of young Russian males against their will every year. But demographics are not conducive to such an approach,” the ISW report says.
How many people can be drafted in Russia in 2023
Analysts estimate that approximately 800,000 young people in Russia turn 18 every year. Expanding the military conscription beyond 260,000 risks not only drawing young people with physical characteristics unfit for war to the front, but also starting to draw too many young people from the Russian economy, which Putin is simultaneously trying to convert to the war footing.
The specter of unlimited Russian manpower is a myth. Putin has already been forced to make difficult and sub-optimal choices to make up for the terrible losses his war has inflicted on the Russian military, and he will face an equally difficult choice in 2023 if he persists in his resolve. use military force to impose their will on Ukraine and the West,” American analysts say.
However, ISW is convinced that Putin will still take such measures and try to increase the Russian mobilization reserve. However, the costs for Russia will begin to grow rapidly and will affect the country’s economy.
Recall, on February 25, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that Russia had deployed additional detachments of “Kadyrovites” near Bakhmut in order to restrain desertion and sabotage of the mobilized. In Chechnya, according to the Ukrainian command, forced mobilization continues.
On February 22, it became known that the Russian invaders on the territory of the “LPR” began to significantly simplify and accelerate the forced mobilization of the civilian population.
Earlier, on February 16, the Mariupol City Hall said that the first mobilized residents of the city had already gone to the front line. Employees of the public utility “Avtodor” fell under the mandatory conscription into the ranks of the RF Armed Forces, who were transferred without publicity to the front to participate in hostilities.
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