Analysts note that the Wagner offensive itself will not be enough to capture Bakhmut. There is a noticeable decrease in the number of shelling in and around the city, especially in the last few days. Russian troops will have to draw on significant reserves to change the situation.
The offensive potential of the “Wagnerites” near Bakhmut has decreased, the offensive of the PMCs seems to be approaching its climax. This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for March 15.
As analysts write, citing Ukrainian military sources, there is a noticeable decrease in the number of shelling in and around Bakhmut, especially in the past few days.
Wagner PMC founder Yevgeny Prigozhin recently emphasized that the lack of ammunition negatively affects the ability to continue the offensive on Bakhmut and the group was forced to expand its entourage of Bakhmut. The day before, they announced the “capture” of the tiny village of Zaliznyanskoye, 9 km from Bakhmut. This indicates that the “Wagnerites” are probably making opportunistic local attacks on the settlements north of Bakhmut, which are small and relatively easier to capture, since they cannot capture Bakhmut itself.
“Wagner’s recent successes north of Bakhmut indicate that the loss of manpower, artillery and equipment in the battles for Bakhmut is likely to limit Wagner’s ability to complete the close encirclement of Bakhmut or gain significant territory in battles for urban areas. The capture of Zaliznyansky and other similar small settlements north of Bakhmut and east of the E40 is unlikely to enhance Wagner’s ability to capture Bakhmut itself or achieve other operationally important successes. Therefore, it is likely that Wagner’s offensive on Bakhmut is increasingly approaching a climax,” the ISW report says.
Analysts suggest that Russian troops will have to draw on significant reserves to prevent this climax. And it is quite possible that they will be able to do this, since ISW has noticed parts of the Russian airborne regiments in and around Bakhmut, not yet too involved in the fighting. The Russians may also bring in elements of other regular units, possibly including the 2nd Motor Rifle Division or units deployed from other parts of the theater.
“But it looks like the Wagner offensive alone will not be enough to capture Bakhmut. Russian troops are not conducting active or successful offensive operations in other parts of the theater of operations, and as the pace of operations in critical sectors of the front slows down, Ukrainian troops are likely to have more likely to regain the initiative,” the report says.
On March 14, CNN reported that the fighting in Bakhmut was concentrated in the industrial zone in the northern part of the city. According to the Wagner mercenaries, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fire at them daily with dozens of ammunition, of which there are “a huge number” and which are replenished every day.
Also, on March 14, the Lithuanian Parliament recognized the Russian armed group PMC Wagner, which is fighting in Ukraine, as a terrorist organization.
British intelligence, in turn, reported on March 13 that PMC Wagner would have to reduce the scale of operations in Ukraine due to losses. After the ban on the recruitment of prisoners, Prigozhin is probably relying on recruiting centers in 40 settlements of the Russian Federation, but even this may not be enough to compensate for losses.
On March 11, Ukrainian border guards liquidated a group of “Wagnerites” in the Bakhmut industrial zone. Snipers destroyed 6 Russian mercenaries.
