Of course, all this is done primarily for the domestic consumer, in order to show that the sacred peninsula is under protection and no amphibious assault or land counteroffensive threatens the cradle of the Russian bacillus. But the question is: what kind of amphibious assault are they preparing for?
Ukraine does not have enough landing craft, in particular, large/medium/small landing ships/boats to carry out such landing. In addition, the presence of the Russians BKRK “Bastion” jeopardizes such a scenario with heavy losses, as well as the landing process itself.
That is, the Russians are right now preparing in the occupied Crimea for a scenario that will not be implemented under any circumstances. This suggests the idea that now a banal sawing of the budget bubble is being carried out in Crimea, like the last time. Although why, “like the last one?” Exactly, the last one.
It is amusing that along the coastline in a number of locations, for example, in Yevpatoria, trenches are being dug where even theoretically an amphibious landing would not be carried out, since this is irrational and stupid.
Trenches dug by Russia on the seashore in the occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Ukraine
Photo: Screenshot
But still, if we talk about the liberation of Crimea, what will be the scenario? Since 2022, I have consistently been of the opinion that this will be the Serpent’s Island scenario, adapted to a slightly larger area. The scenario of the complete isolation of the Crimean peninsula from the outside world and the methodical, systematic annihilation of the invaders.
The main task of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to start the active phase of this scenario is to reach the administrative border of the peninsula. After that, the formation of a strike and fire potential will begin to carry out the tasks of destroying all military installations and military infrastructure on the peninsula.
In fact, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can provide 4 zones of destruction, taking into account the existing and prospective weapons that we can get (or are already getting). And these zones are quite enough to make the ROV totally shrink in the southern location, exposing or at least weakening the north and center of the peninsula.
I note in advance that the affected areas are indicated taking into account the safety buffer for weapons up to 20 km and without taking into account the specifics of the shots, with an average value over the range. That is, conditionally up to + 20-30% in range to the indicated values.
In turn, an important point will be the restoration of full control over the Sea of \u200b\u200bAzov and the infliction of damage incomparable with the functioning of the only logistical artery connecting mainland Russia and the peninsula – the Crimean bridge.
The preservation of the ferry service is possible only for civilian purposes, but if it is used to provide the peninsula with the forces and means of the ROV, such ferries should be destroyed at sea or in ports, because during the transportation of troops they can and will be covered by civilians.
Thus, the ROV contingent on the peninsula will be isolated and will suffer daily losses, the recovery of which will not be possible. That is, a daily minus, which will lead after some time to a complete loss of combat capability of the ROV units in the Crimea.
This is just one of the scenarios that I see most clearly, but at the same time, on the table in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I am more than sure that there are several similar scenarios, and some of them are much more unexpected than this template sketch of a larger-scale operation than was on Zmeiny Island.
But in general, the fetish that Russian propaganda has arranged around Crimea looks very poor, given how the liberation of the peninsula is seen in reality. Pack your bags, the trenches won’t help. On the contrary, in them you and …
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