You will not envy only those who, in spite of everything, will try to buy a European-made truck.
The main factor influencing price growth was the change in the structure of truck brands and the construction of new supply chains.
Demand for trucks remained almost unchanged in 2022, while European brands reduced their supplies to Russia, and domestic manufacturers were forced to restructure production for domestic components. European brands have been replaced by Chinese ones, which are actively filling the market and occupying their share.
The market demanded a revision of logistics and the construction of new supply routes, which previously did not exist for such volumes. In addition, the price is affected by the unstable exchange rate of the ruble, which pushed importers to play it safe and include risks in the price.
The main price increase was for KAMAZ (dump trucks and tractors ~25%), Ural (flatbed trucks ~30%), which have been growing in price since 2021, as well as European brands (Scania, Volvo and MAN – from 30 to 50%).
If we talk about Chinese brands, then the growth is insignificant compared to the rest: Shacman ~ 15%, Howo ~ 10%. Growth in prices here is restrained by maintaining demand, competition between manufacturers for market share, competition between importers through subsidizing equipment and end sellers who use new tools to attract customers.
Price dynamics on the example of popular truck models
KAMAZ (tractor): the weighted average price for a truck tractor at the beginning of 2022 started at around 7.8 million rubles. Throughout the year, the price changed, but in the end, by the end of the year, it reached the level of 7 million rubles:
KAMAZ (dump truck): the picture is about the same. We see a surge in prices in March and at the end of the year. The price started in January from 6.6 million rubles. There was a surge in March to 8 million rubles, and by the end of the year the price leveled off at around 7 million rubles.
The average price for a GAZ truck at the beginning of the year started at 3.5 million rubles. By the end of the year, the cost rose to 4.7 million rubles:
At Shacman, the price in December 2022 remained at the level of January – 8.1 million rubles. Only an obvious spike in March is visible:
Expert opinionNikita Akhmerov, truck expert at Alfa-Leasing Group:
— I think that the price growth trend will remain at the level of 2022. Other things being equal, we can say that the market will keep the current trend for some time (~10%). As the practice of last year shows, the market is able to quickly rebuild, and current events have affected demand, rather, in a positive direction. The construction of new logistics has been ongoing since the beginning of 2022, which allows us to gradually reduce costs and compete for market share.
I do not think that parallel imports can significantly affect trends, rather it will create an additional incentive to curb price growth.
As the market fills with Chinese brands, in 2023 the main manufacturers will strengthen their positions and maintain current prices. Here, rather, a scenario is possible when customers who do not trust Chinese brands, but believe in European ones, will be ready to overpay for a European car, counting on higher quality, even if it is a used car. The share of such customers will be, but not so high that importers will significantly fall in price. Rather, sellers of parallel imports, on the contrary, will make money on such customers, motivating the price with supply difficulties.
Photo: Brian Stalter / Unsplash
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