Republicans and Democrats have not yet been able to approve aid for Ukraine—domestic political issues remain a stumbling block. Focus asked experts to explain what would happen if the United States stopped supporting Kyiv with money.
On December 6, the US Senate is scheduled to vote on a package of bills worth $110 billion, some of which – more than $60 billion – are intended for Ukraine. With a high probability, the document will not be accepted, as stated by the head of the “Voice” faction in the Verkhovna Rada, Alexandra Ustinova, who is actively lobbying for the issue of supporting Ukraine in the United States.
Republicans and Democrats could not agree on strengthening the US southern border included in the package of bills. The negotiations turned into a skirmish, due to which, apparently, the speech of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky before the Senate, which was announced on December 5, had to be canceled at the last moment. According to the official version, this was done because internal political issues were discussed at the meeting.
The Republican position regarding the future vote was clearly formulated by the speaker of the lower House of Representatives, Mike Johnson. He statedthat will not support assistance to Ukraine without changes in migration policy.
Let’s hold the line
“Based on the figures that Ukraine has not yet received this year, we have about 4.8 billion dollars. This money paid for the production of equipment during the year, the delivery of which should be carried out before spring. Therefore, even if the United States does not vote for aid for Ukraine, it won’t end tomorrow, and neither will it on January 1. And in three months, the Americans will be able to resolve internal political issues,” says Focus military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Roman Svitan.
According to the expert, Kyiv has enough resources to provide defense in winter, as there is help from European partners. And then we need to concentrate our efforts on our own production.
“The consumption of any equipment during a large-scale offensive is 3-5 times greater than during a defense. Sometimes – 7 times. Since without aviation, offensive actions are doomed to failure, and we will not be able to obtain this type of weapons without our partners, the overall picture This is: we will hold out in defense mode, and then we will wait for the partners’ decision,” adds Svitan.
Political expert Igor Reiterovich adds that Democrats are interested in approving aid for Ukraine. For them, in the future, this will be a bonus in the upcoming elections in 2024. Republicans, in turn, want to satisfy the interests of their own electorate, insisting on the need to allocate money, including for strengthening the southern border of the United States. This is the key problem and the main disagreement that has not yet been overcome.
“Restriction of assistance may become a factor that will force our political leadership to think about negotiations with the Russian Federation. The situation is not a stalemate yet. However, if there are direct statements about the suspension of assistance, this will be a direct signal to sit down at the negotiating table. This is bad, because Russia’s positions will be stronger, they understand the situation and will take advantage of it,” says Focus Reiterovich.
To the negotiating table – only with a strong position
The expert adds that the media are increasingly publishing assumptions that Kyiv may be persuaded to negotiate, since Western financial assistance is not endless. However, according to Reiterovich, Ukraine can only come to the negotiating table with ironclad arguments demonstrating a strong position. This could be successes at the front, or a situation in which the Russian Federation will be politically interested in negotiations no less than Ukraine.
“There are rumors in the Russian Federation that they will be interested in negotiations before the summer. Despite the mobilization and the war economy, they are not in a situation in which they can achieve significant success on the battlefield. Recent results of a poll in the Russian Federation showed that the majority of Russians are in During the “Direct Line” with Putin, most of all they want to ask: “When will the war end?” These sentiments will only intensify. And the leadership of the Russian Federation will have to look for a way out of the situation. Putin is not against ending the war now, only on his terms. Since this is impossible , they will look for other options,” the expert sums up.
Let us remind you that the director of the US Office of Management and Budget, Shalanda Young, believes that the allocated funds for assistance to Ukraine will expire by the end of the year. If Congress refuses to vote on additional funding, it will “bring Kyiv to its knees on the battlefield” and increase the likelihood of Russian military victories.
And US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is confident that if Putin is allowed to continue to act with impunity, he will not only not stop in Ukraine, but will also direct his efforts to war with NATO countries.
Focus I figured out when and what kind of assistance for Ukraine would be approved in the American Congress.
Also Focus wrote why Western politicians sympathize with Putin and how the Kremlin takes advantage of this.