Michel Yakovleff compares the current situation in the Russian Federation with Lebanon in 1973, and the presence of many paramilitary structures, including those controlled by oligarchs and local elites, can only accelerate the country’s disintegration into several parts.
NATO should start preparing now for the fact that the Russian Federation will fall apart in the future. This opinion was expressed by the French general, ex-deputy commander of NATO forces in Europe, Michel Yakovleff, in a conversation with Xavier Titelman, a former crew member in the French naval aviation.
In his opinion, the Ukrainian army is by far the best in Europe, but the Russian army has huge problems that no one expected. Therefore, they can only defend themselves.
Moreover, the Russian Federation may soon collapse. It is inevitable and will be more bloody than the collapse of the USSR. The reason for this will be that there are three active armies in the country – the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the FSB, which is similar to the situation in Lebanon in 1973. This is not to mention private military companies, armies of oligarchs and Kadyrovites.
“The war with Ukraine is a dish for a snack, then there will be the main menu – the collapse of Russia. Ukraine is just a trigger for historical events that we will see later,” the general believes.
Moreover, the Russian Federation can divide into even more new countries than it was with the former Yugoslavia.
The end of the war can also have several scenarios and the victory of the Russian Federation still cannot be discounted. To do this, they will need to show a new level of military professionalism, including: the choice of attack targets, logistics, the quality of equipment, the interaction of troops, and so on. But, this is not and is not even visible on the horizon – the Russian occupiers continue to demonstrate mistakes.
In another scenario, this is an unconditional victory for Ukraine and a stop of both armies at the borders.
Recall, on February 28, ISW reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to accuse Ukraine and the West of threatening the existence of Russia. The Kremlin launched the information operation with two main narratives: fueling support for the war in Russia and fueling fears in the West about the instability that would come after the possible collapse of the Russian Federation, in order to persuade Ukraine to negotiate.
On February 16, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov said that Ukraine would cause the collapse of the Russian Federation. He recalled that in 1989, during the strike in Vorkuta, out of 176 miners who took part in it, 94 were Ukrainians. This event later became the impetus for protests throughout the Union.
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